Expanding adult-use legalization across new state and national markets is the force behind the cannabis market's expansion, and Contrive Datum Insights rates its impact high in a newly released study. As additional states and at least one national government move recreational sale into a licensed framework, the number of buyers a supplier can legally reach grows every year the report tracks.
Contrive Datum Insights values the global cannabis market at USD 68 billion in 2025 and projects growth to USD 77.5 billion in 2026, reaching USD 194.3 billion by 2034 at a compound annual growth rate of 12.18%. The estimate comes from the firm's report titled "Cannabis Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis, By Source (Marijuana, Flowers, Oil and Tinctures, Hemp, Hemp CBD, Supplements, Industrial Hemp), Derivative (THC, CBD, Others), End-use (Medical Use, Cancer, Chronic Pain), Depression and anxiety (Recreational Use, Industrial Use, Epilepsy, Multiple Sclerosis, Arthritis, Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Migraines, Glaucoma, Parkinson's, Diabetes, Alzheimer's, AIDS, Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, Tourette's), Distribution channel (Dispensaries and Retail Stores, Pharmacies, Online and E-commerce), and Regional Forecast, 2026-2034".
Industrial Hemp captures the legalization trend most directly. Its revenue rises from USD 2.04 billion in 2025 to USD 7.77 billion by 2034, a 15.77% annual growth rate, the fastest of any source line tracked in the report, and its share of total revenue climbs from 3% to 4%. Marijuana still holds the largest single share, 34% of 2025 revenue at USD 23.12 billion, yet it grows at only 11.01% a year; by 2034 its share has slipped to 31% even though its dollar value keeps rising. THC leads by derivative at 58% of 2025 revenue, USD 39.44 billion, and Medical Use leads by end-use at 55%, USD 37.4 billion; neither grows as fast as the source-level shift toward Industrial Hemp.
North America supplies 62% of 2025 revenue, USD 42.16 billion, and the report expects that figure to reach USD 106.87 billion by 2034. The United States alone accounts for USD 34.99 billion of 2025 revenue, 51.46% of the global total. Europe's share climbs from 20% in 2025 to 24% in 2034 as revenue grows from USD 13.6 billion to USD 46.63 billion, while the Middle East and Africa stays flat at 3% of global revenue across both years.
Contrive Datum Insights also tested the forecast against slower conditions. If U.S. federal reform stalls beyond 2028, cultivation oversupply extends price compression further into the forecast period, and at least one currently legal European medical market tightens its licensing rules, 2034 revenue would land at USD 169.04 billion instead of the USD 194.3 billion base case. Faster conditions run the other way: additional states legalizing ahead of schedule, a major EU market beyond Germany adopting adult-use rules, and continued double-digit growth in CBD wellness retail without a pricing correction could carry 2034 revenue to USD 223.45 billion. The report is delivered as a PDF, and a free sample is available on request.